Saturday, September 12, 2009

NFL Team of the Decade: '00s Version

As any fan of the modern NFL can attest, the league is a perpetual stack ranking machine. Who's the greatest QB ever? Best clutch kicker? Greatest defense? Those examples usually lead to debates, but there is one ranking that achieves consensus: team of the decade.

This general acceptance is probably because the right answer boils down to championships won. Here's the generally approved list from the modern era:
  • 1960s - Green Bay Packers
  • 1970s - Pittsburgh Steelers
  • 1980s - San Francisco 49ers
  • 1990s - Dallas Cowboys
About one year ago, just as the 2nd-to-last season of the decade was kicking off, it seemed the team of the decade for the 2000s was a forgone conclusion. The New England Patriots had been to 4 Super Bowls during the decade, winning 3 of them. No other team had won multiple Super Bowl in the '00s, and of those teams, only one had been to multiple (the New York Giants).



However, the 2008 season ended with the Pittsburgh Steelers winning their 2nd Super Bowl of the decade, closing the gap ever so slightly on the Patriots' stranglehold on team of the decade honors. This makes for a pretty interesting thought experiment: if the Steelers can repeat as champs (thus equalling New England's total of 3 for the '00s), who's the team of the decade?

Let's back up and review how the 2 teams have fared over the 1st 9 seasons of the decade to see how these clubs stack up:
  • Super Bowls - 3 wins in 4 appearances for New England vs. 2-for-2 for Pittsburgh
  • Playoffs - both teams with 6 appearances; however, 14 wins for New England vs. 10 for Pittsburgh
  • Regular season - 102 wins for New England vs. 94 for Pittsburgh
So it's obvious that the Patriots still get the nod for now. And it's also obvious that even with another win, the Steelers can't reach the Super Bowl appearance total of 4. Here's my breakdown of the only hope Pittsburgh:
  1. Win Super Bowl 44 - this is 1st and foremost. Without this win, all other analysis is unnecessary (Mindy, if you read this far, yeah I know, this whole post is unnecessary, but let's keep those comments to ourselves, shall we?).
  2. Win 8 more games than the Patriots during the '09 regular season - this will be extremely difficult, as the Patriots are the Las Vegas favorites to win it all this year. But by winning 8 more games than the Patriots (and assuming they compile more than 2 wins), the Steelers will equal their regular season win total and go one up in the playoff appearance total.
  3. Enter the playoffs without a 1st round bye - this would be an added bonus really. It'd make the playoff run much more difficult (involving at least one road game), but playing 4 games rather than 3 would give the Steelers an equal number of playoff wins to the Patriots.
So if the Steelers can accomplish #1 above, there's a discussion at least, as the Super Bowl wins would be equal at 3. If they get somewhat near #2 & #3, the numbers shake out as a virtual tie: regular season & playoff wins would be pretty much even, the Steelers would have the slight edge in playoff appearances, but the Patriots would have the slight edge in Super Bowl appearances.

Here's the problem with the above scenario: under the virtual tie, we'd have to check out the head-to-head results. These 2 teams played in the regular season 5 times with New England winning 3 of them. But then there's the knockout blow...these 2 teams met in the playoffs twice. The Patriots won both times. Both in the AFC championship game. Both in Pittsburgh.

So even under my long-shot scenario, the Patriots get the nod as team of the decade due to those crucial playoff head-to-head wins. OK, let's forget trying to get the Steelers to equalize the number of regular season and playoff wins + get a leg up in playoff appearances.

What the Steelers need is this: have New England earn home field advantage in the playoffs. Sure, the Patriots would have the slight edge in total wins and Super Bowl appearances locked up at that point. But if the Steelers can win the AFC championship game in New England, then go on to win Super Bowl 44, they'd end the decade by exacting revenge on the hated Patriots and matching them in titles.

The less important numbers would slightly favor New England, but I'd say we'd have co-teams of the decade at that point.

P.S.: There's plenty of sources I could link to from this post, but it's Saturday morning, and I'm lazy. To verify the above numbers, Wikipedia is a great reference. Search "Pittsburgh Steelers seasons" and "New England Patriors seasons".

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